The 49ers are looking at a crossroads
Where do they go from here?
Here we go again…as a Niners fan we’re watching our team at a critical juncture. Not in terms of making the playoffs this year, it’s been a write-off with injuries, but on the future outlook of the team. They only have a 11% chance of making the playoffs (on most models) and a win over the Rams on Thursday night might increase that number a little. Essentially they need to win out and hope the Seahawks lose a couple. There is a weird scenario where they win the division with 9 wins but it’s not worth considering that unlikely outcome. I’m looking at them as basically cooked already…actually since the Seahawks loss (game 10) considering the schedule they had ahead of them (5-5 record). What’s more important is; which players show up in these must win games and who doesn’t, who’s complaining, who’s collapses under pressure as we figure some will give up.
The 49ers injury report has been nothing short of a nightmare. Here’s a rundown in chronological order of the season ending injuries in case you couldn’t keep up with the bad news:
Drake Jackson (DE) - on PUP (Physically Unable to Perform list) knee (projected starter)
Elijah Mitchell (RB) - IR (Injured Reserve list) hamstring (backup) in training camp (backup RB)
Javon Hargrave (DT) - IR tricep (starter) played first 3 games
Curtis Robinson (LB) - IR knee (backup mainly special teams) played first 3 games
Brandon Aiyuk (WR) - IR knee (starter) played first 8 games and gone for the season
Christian McCaffrey (RB) - IR knee (starter) missed the first 8 games to the bye week, played in 4 games and then gone for the season
Kevin Givens (DT) - IR pectoral (backup) injured game in game 12
Jon Feliciano (RG) - IR knee (backup) couldn’t return from injury and didn’t play a game
Now you have the guys on the IR or injured list who might return at the end of this season:
Jordan Mason (RB) - IR knee (starter with McCaffrey out) might comeback week 18 if that game means anything
George Odom (FS) - IR knee (backup) might comeback week 18 if that game means anything
Guys who could return next week vs Miami:
Mitch Wishnowsky (P) - IR back (starter)
Darrel Luter Jr. (CB) - IR pelvis (backup)
Ambry Thomas (CB) - IR forearm (backup)
Players who might suit up on Thursday night vs the Rams
Dre Greenlaw (LB) - PUP achilles (starter) hasn’t played this season and might play Thursday night vs the Rams
Isaac Guerendo (RB) - sprained foot. (starter with McCaffrey and Mason out) game time decision vs Rams
Nick Bosa (DE) - Oblique (starter) is listed as questionable vs Rams
Malik Mustafa (SS) - Chest (starter) questionable vs Rams
Yetur Gross-Matos (DE) - Knee (starter if Bosa is out) questionable vs Rams
Demetrius Flannigan-Flowles (LB) - Knee (backup on special teams) questionable vs Rams
Dee Winters (LB) - Ankle (starter) questionable vs Rams
Ben Bartch (LG) - Ankle (backup) out vs Rams
Trent Williams (LT) - Ankle (starter) questionable vs Rams
It’s a bleak picture but in hindsight a plausible outcome considering how many post-season games this core roster has played since 2019. I chalk this up to both mental and physical accumulated fatigue. There’s the notion of the Super Bowl hangover especially one lost in overtime and also the age of the core players on the roster. In football culture we have the next man up mentality and injuries are a reality so good teams can persevere through that. Well…this version of the 49ers couldn’t and a 6 wins 7 losses record with a tough schedule is about right. Fans will look back at the blown leads vs the division rivals; Rams, Cardinals and Seahawks but in reality we used to blow those teams out of the water in recent seasons. Even being in a tight game against those rosters is an indication of what this team is when a few key starters are out. Neither the backups nore the coaching staff were able to hold the fort down.
The Niners remaining schedule is Thursday night hosting the Rams, the next Sunday at the Dolphins, return Monday night to face the Lions and the following Sunday at the Cardinals. It’s not impossible to run the table but highly unlikely. In looking at the future the most important decision is on QB Brock Purdy, not in terms of signing an extension, but more about how good does he play down the stretch in good weather and on grass for 3 of them. Play well and then you start negotiating with him immediately after the season concludes. If he doesn’t play well do you have him play out the 4th year and in that case does he have the stones to threaten a hold-out?
Another player I’ll keep my eyes on is Isaac Guerendo as a future starting running back. He is more of a flash and dash runner than Mason and has better receiving skills. He and Mason could be a great 1-2 punch moving forward with their different skill-sets.
There’s a number of questions that still need answers:
Can the defence continue with good play that was shown vs the Bears or regress to how they looked in previous games?
Can the defence stop the run?
Can the defence continue improvements in the red zone?
Can Sorenson dial up good gameplans the rest of the season to save his job as DC?
Has Shanahan fixed the offense’s redzone issues?
Can the special teams stop being a disaster?
There’s certainly more questions than answers at the moment.